Pro and College Stat Pattern Reports by Isoke Show Factors That Affect the Spread

3 June 2004

By Howard Schwartz

Andy Iskoe, who's been analyzing pro and college football teams for more than 20 years, has his 2004 Pro Football Statistical Pattern Report (19 pages, 8x11 stapled, $10) and companion work. the 2004 College Football Statistical Pattern Report (16 pages, 8x11 stapled, $10) ready with plenty of time for serious or beginning researchers to do their homework before the season begins. The pro version studies almost 4,000 games in a 16-season span. The college edition examines almost 10,000 games for 16 seasons.

As example, the pro report shows you why a team that rushes for more than 150 years yet allows the opponent less than 100 yards rushing has a chance of covering over 82 percent of the time. In addition, Iskoe's research shows teams which rush for more yards than they allow their opponents to gain both rushing and passing have a record versus the line of almost 94 percent. "There are not many more indications of dominant performance than in this category," Iskoe emphasizes. He says it may be a rare occurrence over the 16 seasons studied, but it "still averages about one occurrence per week."

For those who want to examine either pro or college patterns in four-year increments, Iskoe makes it simple to follow in charts--so you may compare if a trend is on the increase or decline.

The book explains how to apply box score statistics and angles to possibly project how a team will perform the following week. For an aspiring handicapper who wants to save much time gathering and analyzing statistics in search for a methodology, Iskoe's work is invaluable. Foe the occasional bettor who questions whether or not a solid defense outranks a wild, wide-open offense, here too, Iskoe's work cuts to the chase.

Football magazines are now arriving at Gambler's Book Shop. Two new arrivals are Street & Smith's Pro Football Preview ($6.99, 200 pages). Regular season schedules, rosters, including birthdays, jersey numbers, years if NFL experience and their college are included. Projected starting lineups, 2004 draftees; off-season additions; how much it will cost you to attend a game including cost of food and beverages are also listed.

There is a six-page section devoted to the Canadian Football League (no schedules, rosters or statistical material included here). There are statistics and a 2003 season recap in this magazine for the NFL and a six-page section for fantasy league players to get a quick preview. There are no pointspread results in this magazine.

Pro Football Weekly's Preview 2004 ($6.99, 196 pages) magazine is also on the store's shelves. For those who want the results and what the spread was and if a team covered or not, it's here. There are no over-under results though.

The magazine offers a three-deep chart for offense and defense; projected rosters with jersey numbers, no age or birth dates; name of school and number of years NFL experience, plus how many games played and started in 2003.

A strength of this magazine is in showing how each team did game by game in regard to statistics, also comparing their performance to their opponents in regard to rushing or passing. For fantasy league players, you can see how rushers, receivers and passers did game by game.

A unique chart showing how each NFL team, ranked in dozens of categories compared to all other NFL teams is included. This includes third and fourth down efficient; field goal percentage; number of times quarterback sacked and average number of yards gained in passing plays.